Labor

Leadership

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, member for Grayndler. Albanese has served his Sydney seat since 1996 and as  Labor leader since 2019. In the 2022 election, Albanese led his party to victory over Scott Morrison’s Coalition government. 

Major Policies of the Last Term

The ‘Help to Buy Scheme’ offers shared equity loans to 40,000 low and middle-income families, aimed at improving housing security by providing greater access to affordable and safe housing. In November, Labor passed changes to the HECS debt indexation, which has been altered to align with either inflation or the wage price index, based on which is lower. With support from the Coalition, Australia also passed one of the world’s strictest social media bans for under 16s, with platforms like TikTok, Instagram and Snapchat having a year to comply, at the risk of a $50 million fine.

Key Issues

While bringing down the ever-rising cost of living will be a major priority across the board, Labor has affirmed its commitment to cost-saving measures by proposing additional cost-of-living policies. Current election proposals include slashing HECS/HELP debt by 20 per cent, reducing the cost of PBS medications, and delivering small additional tax cuts. They have also promised to raise the minimum income threshold needed to pay back student debt and make supermarket price-gouging illegal.

Potential Flips

Deakin:  In the outer eastern suburbs of Melbourne, centred around Ringwood is Deakin, the Liberal Party’s most marginal seat in Australia which is currently held by former housing minister Michael Sukkar. Redistribution has moved Deakin slightly north-west and further narrowed its margin from 0.2 to 0.02 per cent. 2022 challenger Matt Greg will re-contest the seat for Labor.

Menzies: Also in Melbourne’s diverse eastern suburbs lies Menzies, which extends from Warrandyte in the northeast to Box Hill in the south. While a traditionally Liberal seat, Labor came dangerously close to winning Menzies in 2022, and redistribution has placed its margin by a narrow 0.4 per cent into Labor’s column. Liberal member Keith Wolahan is fighting hard this election to retain his seat.

Coalition

Leadership

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, member for Dickson. Dutton has served his Queensland seat in parliament since 2001 and became Liberal leader following the Coalition’s defeat at the 2022 election. Dutton’s deputy is Maranoa MP David Littleproud, who comes from the National Party, the Liberals’ junior coalition partner.

Key Issues

In January, the Coalition released a report titled ‘Getting Australia Back On Track’. The report tracks 12 top priorities if elected, including ‘fighting cost of living pressures’, ‘rebalancing migration’ and ‘cutting government waste.’ A significant component of the Coalition’s election campaign is the construction of nuclear power plants to meet domestic energy consumption needs, which has been marketed as an alternative to renewable energy. On education, the Coalition has promised to limit the number of international students allowed to commence study in Australia each year to 240,000 and mandate that no more than one-quarter of students at public universities are enrolled from overseas.

Potential Flips

Aston: While Liberal education minister Alan Tudge retained his seat of Aston in 2022, he suffered a large swing against him. After Tudge’s resignation, Labor’s Mary Doyle flipped the seat in the 2023 by-election in a historic upset victory. Doyle will likely face a wave of Liberal voters returning to the party in this traditionally Liberal seat in the eastern suburbs around Knox.

Chisholm: Chisholm lies in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs, extending from Glen Iris in the west to Wheelers Hill in the east and comprises affluent, diverse areas like Glen Waverley and Chadstone.  At the 2022 election, Labor’s Carina Garland won the seat from the Liberals by a 6.4 per cent margin. A favourable distribution for the Liberal Party has put the seat back into play for Liberal candidate Katie Allen, who has campaigned on issues like housing affordability. 

Greens

Leadership

Greens leader Adam Bandt, member for Melbourne. Bandt has held his seat since 2010, when he became the first Greens member in the House of Representatives. The University of Melbourne’s Parkville campus and the residents of its colleges fall within the seat of Melbourne. 

Key Issues

Advocates of environmental conservationism and socially progressive policies, the Greens have, in recent years, pursued a more populist approach to politics. They advocate for drug reform, particularly the recreational and medicinal legalisation of cannabis, the inclusion of dental and mental healthcare into Medicare, and Medicare coverage of ADHD and autism diagnoses. The Greens have oriented their policies towards their younger voter base, advocating for free tertiary education, 50 cent public transport fares nationwide, and widespread tax reform. 

Potential Flips

Wills: Wills encompasses Brunswick, Carlton North and Coburg. The seat is currently held by Labor’s Peter Khalil, who will face an uphill battle to retain his seat against former Victorian Greens leader Samantha Ratnam, due to unfavourable redistribution.

Macnamara: In Melbourne’s south, from Port Melbourne to St Kilda, Macnamara is currently less than 300 votes from flipping to the Greens. Incumbent Labor MP Josh Burns is facing a close three-way race against Greens candidate Sonya Semmens and Liberal candidate Benson Saulo. Should Labor slip to third place here, the Greens will win the seat. 

Teals

Leadership

The ‘teals’ are moderate independent candidates, generally women, running in traditionally Liberal seats. While the teals are not bound by a party structure, they are funded by Climate 200, an organisation that supports pro-climate independents. The colour teal is considered a blend between the blue of the Liberal Party and green climate politics. The success of teal independent candidates in wealthy traditionally Liberal seats can be understood as a result of the Coalition’s move to the right in recent years, and the alienation of moderate female voters. 

Key Issues

While teal candidates vary on some policy points, they are united by their climate action policies, such as stronger emission reduction targets, increasing renewable energy sources, electric vehicle access, and phasing out fossil fuel subsidies. They often follow a ‘future-oriented thinking’ approach, pursuing workplace equality, gender pay gap reduction, and addressing sexual harassment, as well as investments in education. Labor’s changes to HECS indexation can be attributed to Kooyong teal independent Monique Ryan, who proposed the changes in a public petition.

Potential Flips

Flinders: The electorate of Flinders covers most of the Mornington Peninsula, where in the 2022 state election, teal independent Kate Lardner came close to defeating the Liberals. Another teal, Ben Smith, will be hoping to mount a strong challenge against MP Zoe McKenzie in this safe Liberal seat.

Wannon: In rural western Victoria, around the regional centres of Ararat, Portland, and Warrnambool, former Liberal trade minister Dan Tehan is facing a challenge from independent Alex Dyson. Dyson is a former radio presenter at Triple J and ran against Tehan in 2022.