This year’s awards season is unlike anything The Academy has seen. The sheer amount of controversy plaguing frontrunners Emilia Pérez, The Brutalist and Anora have thrown the race into disarray, many outlets scrambling to reach a consensus on what—and who—could possibly take-home Oscars gold. In an attempt to condense everything that’s happened, below are insights into every Best Picture contender, explaining what’s been obstructing their success and how voters might act in the wake of what can only be described as an avalanche of controversies.

Where to start with Emilia Pérez?

Never have I seen such a sudden and intense shift in public opinion against a film than what Emilia Pérez has managed to achieve over the past few weeks. After winning the Golden Globe for Best Picture (Comedy/Musical) and receiving a record-breaking thirteen Oscar Nominations, director Jacques Audiard’s Mexico-set musical seemed poised to win it all. Following that ceremony, however, the movie has drowned in a series of campaign ruining controversies, too many to effectively unpack in this format. With that in mind, below is a list of just some of the scandals affecting the film, organised in a relative timeline.

• Jacques Audiard calls Spanish “the language of modest countries”
• Star Karla Sofía Gascón is exposed for using artificial intelligence (A.I.) to enhance her vocal range
• Star Zoe Saldaña is called out for doing blackface in a 2021 Nina Simone biopic
• Karla Sofía Gascón compares backlash against the film to Nazism
• Karla Sofía Gascón accuses fellow nominee Fernanda Torres and her team of spreading negative rhetoric about her and Emilia Pérez online—nominees are explicitly not allowed to speak negatively about one another (as per Academy rules)
• Karla Sofía Gascón is exposed for a slew of racist tweets, attacking a number of different minorities and the institutions that protect them
• Zoe Saldaña wins Best Supporting Actress at the London Critics’ Circle and says “I didn’t expect this. Certainly not now.”
• Netflix, Jacques Audiard and Zoe Saldaña condemn Gascón’s behaviour, altogether removing her from Emilia Pérez campaign

A film about the celebration of diversity and, as quoted by Gascón in her speech at the Globes “the triumph of light over darkness”, the real-life actions of the people behind Emilia Pérez is deeply disappointing and harmful. In the wake of these events, it begs the question how Academy voters will respond to all the controversy, and how Emilia Pérez might ultimately go home empty-handed at the main ceremony. Zoe Saldaña’s trophy might go to Ariana Grande for Wicked, Best Picture could turn to Anora, and Best Actress certainly won’t be making its way into Gascón’s hands.

The Brutalist and the issue of indifference

Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist is the surprise hit of this year’s awards circuit, premiering at the Venice Film Festival and quickly barrelling its way to the epicentre of the conversation. The 3.5-hour film is a truly impressive American odyssey, representing a foregone type of film in line with Best Picture winners from 50 years ago. The film’s runtime, when combined with its challenging subject matter, makes me doubt its ability to win Best Picture, especially when it’s up against more accessible, energetic works. Further, The Brutalist has been facing a scandal of its own, in which its filmmakers have been exposed for using generative A.I. to complete the project. Initial reports claimed that the production used A.I. for two main purposes: enhancing Adrien Brody and Felicity Jones’ Hungarian dialogue and contributing to the film’s production design. The latter claim was dispelled by The Brutalist’s creative team, but Brody and Jones have admitted to the use of A.I. to enhance their performances. Their Hungarian dialogue was recorded by native speakers and then melded with the actors’ readings of the lines in order to make their performances more convincing. While this is certainly damaging to the film’s reputation, there exists nuance in this discourse that has mostly gone unnoticed by major publications. All films alter significant aspects of their actors’ performances in post production, as achieved through editing, ADR and even reshoots. While many believe The Brutalist should have not used A.I. to achieve this, the alteration of an actor’s performance is not nearly as controversial as it’s being made out to be, and the film should not be completely cast aside as a result of that. We are yet to fully understand the ramifications of this controversy to The Brutalist’s awards success, but when combined with the film’s inherent inaccessibility, things are not looking up.

Anora rises from the ashes

After winning the Palme D’or at the Cannes Film Festival, Sean Baker’s Anora became the consensus favourite to win Best Picture for most of the year, his rags-to-riches condemnation of the American dream seemingly speaking to the political climate in a way that really resonated with audiences and voters alike. Since then, Anora has faced two major setbacks, the first of which being Mikey Madison’s intimacy coordinator controversy, in which the ingenue actress explained to Pamela Anderson in an interview for Variety that there was no onset intimacy coordinator for Anora, despite the explicit nature of many of the film’s key scenes. This opened up a barrage of discourse surrounding the safety of both Madison herself and that of the larger crew, which perhaps tarnished the film’s reputation in its early stage of campaigning. Anora shockingly went home empty-handed at the Golden Globes, Sean Baker lost Best Screenplay and Best Director to Conclave and The Brutalist, respectively, while Mikey Madison lost Best Actress to Demi Moore and the film lost Best Picture (Comedy/Musical) to Emilia Perez. A lot has changed since the Globes ceremony, however, to such an extent that Anora is now back on track to win Best Picture at the Oscars. In the span of 72 hours, Sean Baker’s film won the top prizes at Critics Choice, Writers’ Guild of America, and Producers Guild of America Awards, a trifecta of wins that have without fail preceded Best Picture wins since 2006. It then went on to win Best Actress for Madison at BAFTA, an accolade that is highly correlative with the eventual winner at the Oscars ceremony. The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez seem like increasingly unlikely Best Picture winners, leaving Sean Baker’s revamped Cinderella story in a prime position to rise from the ashes and restore public faith in the tastes of The Academy.

I’m Still Here and Wicked will both benefit from Emilia Pérez’s fall from grace, the former likely taking home Best International Feature and the latter possibly challenging in Best Supporting Actress for Ariana Grande, along with a healthy number of technical prizes in costume and production design.

Conclave might be the most inoffensive film competing in the awards circuit, compelling some to predict it for Best Picture, but the Best Adapted Screenplay prize will be where it peaks.

A Complete Unknown has been received shockingly well by The Academy, but its awards chances end with its surprise nominations in Best Director and Best Supporting Actress.

The Substance is the first horror movie this decade to be nominated for Best Picture, challenging to weaken Anora’s win package through Demi Moore and its distinctly original Screenplay.

Dune: Part Two and Nickel Boys are two of the best nominees in Best Picture, but won’t win anything major as a result of inexplicable overlooking by both Academy voters and the general public.

With all this in mind, combining actual awards success with recent shifts in public opinion, here are my current predictions for what will go down at the main ceremony, provided we don’t encounter any more landscape-shattering controversies:

Best Picture:

Will Win: Anora

Should Win: Anora

Should be nominated: Sing Sing

Best Director:

Will win: Sean Baker (Anora)

Should win: Sean Baker (Anora)

Should be nominated: RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys)

Best Actor:

Will win: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)

Should win: Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)

Should be nominated: Sebastian Stan (A Different Man)

Best Actress:

Will win: Mikey Madison (Anora)

Should win: Mikey Madison (Anora)

Should be nominated: Elizabeth Olsen (His Three Daughters)

Best Supporting Actress:

Will win: Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Should win: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)

Should be nominated: Carol Kane (Between the Temples)

Best Supporting Actor:

Will win: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)

Should win: Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)

Should be nominated: Joe Alwyn (The Brutalist), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Brandon Wilson (Nickel Boys)

Best Original Screenplay:

Will win: Anora

Should win: Anora

Should be nominated: Challengers

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Will win: Conclave

Should win: Nickel Boys

Should be nominated: Queer