After a gruelling three years of a cost-of-living crisis, wars in Europe and the Middle East, and the looming presence of American President Donald Trump, Australians are headed back to the polls on 3.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his incumbent first-term Labor government are seeking another three-year term, after toppling Scott Morrison’s Liberal-National Coalition government in 2022.
Albanese will face off against Liberal leader Peter Dutton, who has led the Coalition since Morrison’s defeat, which marked the end of almost a decade of successive Coalition governments.
While initial reports indicated that Albanese would call an election in early March, Cyclone Alfred’s interference forced the Prime Minister to push back the election to May. In the early morning of March 28, Albanese formally called an election for 3 May, kickstarting a long five-week election campaign.
A Snap Budget
While a fourth federal budget from Labor would have been avoided had the PM called the election for April, the budget’s delivery by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on March 25, just days before the election was called, was a convenient last-minute re-election pitch to voters.
Between 2023 and 2024 the Albanese Labor government delivered two back-to-back surpluses, the first in nearly two decades, a feat Chalmers was unable to replicate a third time.
Most of the government’s policy proposals had already been unveiled prior to the budget, including $150 in power bill relief for households and businesses, an $8.5 billion investment into Medicare to boost bulk billing, and a $25 cap on the cost of pharmaceuticals.
Labor’s $8.5 billion Medicare pledge has become a key re-election commitment, marketed as the largest ever investment into Medicare and the acute cost-of-living relief required by Australians..
The Coalition have thus far matched both of Labor’s healthcare policies, despite describing them as merely ‘Band Aid solutions’ to the cost-of-living crisis.
However, one new policy announcement in the budget defied expectations, with Chalmers announcing a surprise two per cent tax cut for incomes between $18,201 and $45,000, spread over two years.
The tax relief, which amounts to $17.1 billion over five years, would save taxpayers $268 from mid-2026, and $536 a year from July 1, 2027.
The Coalition raised eyebrows after announcing that they would repeal the tax cuts if elected, prompting ridicule from Labor, who accused the Coalition of abandoning their party platform of low taxes.
Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor described the tax cuts as a ‘cruel hoax,’ ineffective in relieving cost-of-living pressure. Despite the Coalition’s opposition, the tax cuts were passed in parliament with support from the Greens and crossbench.
The Coalition’s budget response included plans to cut the fuel tax from 50.8 cents a litre to 25.4 cents for a year and create a national gas reserve to prioritise energy for domestic consumption in the Australian East Coast.
Under the Coalition’s proposed energy policy, designed to complement their $300 billion plan for nuclear power, gas and electricity bills could fall by seven and three per cent, respectively, according to the party’s modelling.
Nonetheless, news of the Coalition’s budget response was drowned out by Albanese’s election announcement just the morning after, a strategic move on the part of the Prime Minister.
Labor Retakes the Lead
Since the election-eve budget, Labor has taken a decisive lead in the polls, regaining momentum lost over the course of 2024.
A March Newspoll following the budget found that Labor had gained two per cent against the Coalition, with Labor regaining their lead by 51 per cent to 49 per cent two-party preferred.
Another Newspoll in the second week of the campaign found that Labor gained another percentage point against the Coalition, placing the party at 52 per cent to 48 per cent two-party preferred, the party’s biggest Newspoll lead since May 2024.
The Newspoll put Labor at a 33 per cent primary vote, up one since early March, while the Coalition had slumped to 36 per cent, down three, results which closely reflect those of the 2022 election.
However, by the fourth week of the campaign, Newspoll showed the Coalition’s primary vote falling further to just 35 per cent, while Labor’s primary vote rose to 34 per cent, with a stable two-party preferred result.
If replicated at a federal election, this would be the worst ever primary vote result for the Coalition, since the Liberal Party’s founding in 1944.
Labor’s improving poll results have been attributed to Albanese’s rising approval ratings, which have been contrasted with skyrocketing disapproval for Dutton.
As of the fourth Newspoll of the campaign, Albanese leads as preferred Prime Minister against Dutton 52 per cent to 36 per cent, with Albanese at an approval rating of -9, and Dutton at a historic low of -22.
As Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs disrupt the global market, perceived similarities between the US President and Dutton are proving unpopular among Australian voters.
A recent Coalition policy announcement to force public service workers back into the office was almost immediately reversed following widespread backlash. Dutton has similarly promised to slash 41,000 public sector jobs, and has created a ‘Government Efficiency’ portfolio in his shadow cabinet, held by Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price.
Price, who gained notoriety for her role in the Voice referendum’s ‘no’ campaign, recently stirred controversy over a seemingly unscripted moment with Dutton, where she declared that the Coalition would ‘make Australia great again.’
Dutton has thus crafted for himself a near impossible balancing act – to convince Australians he can protect them from Trump’s instability, while also continuing to recycle the Trump-style talking points which have formed the basis for much of the Coalition’s policy platform.
Defying the ‘incumbency curse’ which has stricken governments globally, voters have turned back to Labor, who have seen their performance in the polls steadily improve since February.
As 3 May draws nearer and Labor inches closer towards a majority government, Dutton’s opportunity to reverse the polls and lead the Coalition back to power continues to wane.