On 28 May, Israel intensified its assault in Lebanon, killing at least 19 people and wounding 58 according to Lebanese health authorities.

Israel also issued mass displacement orders across the south, declaring it a “combat zone”. Residents were told to evacuate immediately and move north of the Zahrani River, roughly 40 kilometres from the border.

In the first strike on the capital in three weeks, a woman and two children were killed.

Aljazeera reporter Obaida Hitto said, “since midnight, there have been over a dozen strikes on the city of Tyre and its surrounding areas.” He continued, “The fear is that things are only going to get worse.”

One of Tyre’s main medical centres, Hiram Hospital, was damaged by a nearby Israeli strike.

“The strike was very strong,” Nasser Farra, a surgeon at the hospital, told the ABC. “As usual, the hospital's windows shattered. Only two cars remained in the parking lot and both were destroyed … but thankfully no-one was injured.”

Despite the volatile situation, Dr Farra insisted, “we will not evacuate. On the contrary, we are staying,” noting that his decision to stay is underpinned by his sense of duty to help his patients.

Jeremy Ristord, a country director for Lebanon from Doctors Without Borders, told Al Jazeera, “If the security situation continues to deteriorate, we might have to leave certain areas. There are certain red lines we cannot cross for the security of our teams,”

He stated that 40 hospitals in the south are already closed while 126 civil defence workers have been killed and another 310 wounded since the attacks began in March.

Within a week, three hospitals in southern Lebanon have been damaged by Israeli strikes, killing nine and injuring 150 people.

The International Committee of the Red Cross has warned that continued strikes and forced displacements on urban centres at the hands of Israel are placing civilians in severe risk and deepening a humanitarian crisis.

Following a direct Israeli strike on and the subsequent capture of UNESCO heritage site Qalaat al-Chakif (Beaufort), where the IDF raised an Israeli flag, France called on the UN Security Council to hold an emergency meeting on Tuesday AEST.

This marks Israeli forces' deepest incursion into the country since it previously seized the castle 26 years ago.

Hezbollah politician Hassan Fadlallah reiterated that the castle “was not a military site.”

Implications on Broader Peace in the Region

On 2 June, Iran threatened to suspend peace talks with the US after the violation of the ceasefire in Lebanon.

The Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi warned, “the ceasefire between Iran and the US is unequivocally a ceasefire on all fronts, including in Lebanon. Its violation on one front is a violation of the ceasefire on all fronts. The US and Israel are responsible for the consequences of any violation.”

Meanwhile Trump said the US was not yet informed of Iran suspending talks but confessed they had “been talking too much” and that the halt could be “very good”.

This comes after the US and Iran were close to reaching a deal. The latest iteration, reported by Axios on Saturday, included a 60-day cessation of violence, a call to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and a framework to reopen negotiations on Iran's nuclear program.

Whilst Trump suggested he was leaning towards accepting the deal, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi told state media, “until a clear conclusion is reached … everything that is being said now is speculation”.

Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, wrote that Iran had “no trust in guarantees or words—only actions are the measure.”

“We seize concessions not through dialogue, but with missiles; in negotiations, we merely make them understand,” he continued. “The winner of any agreement is the one who is better prepared for war from the day after.”

“The bone of contention is Lebanon, because another confidence-building measure and prerequisite by Iran is to end the war on all fronts,” said Tehran’s University of Applied Sciences Professor Mostafa Khoshcheshm.

Security affairs analyst Ali Rizk said Iran views Hezbollah as an “indispensable” ally, hence prioritising their interests in negotiations with the US.

“[Iran] is also adamant that the United States find a way to coerce Israel into a true ceasefire in Lebanon, and perhaps, likely even, remove its forces from southern Lebanon,” according to Jason Campbell, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

Controversial Peace Talks

On 14 and 23 April, Israeli and Lebanese officials gathered in Washington to discuss a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese resistance group.

Under the truce terms, only Lebanon’s national security forces are permitted to carry weapons in southern Lebanon.

The talks sparked mixed reactions amongst Lebanese citizens who were frustrated with their government for not taking a stronger position during these talks.

This was the first time Lebanon and Israel have engaged in direct talks for decades and were set to resume on 21 May.

“We hope that a full agreement to cease hostilities [between the US and Iran] will be reached and that this agreement will include us,” the leader of Hezbollah, Naim Qassem, said in a speech.

Conversely, Qassem welcomed a possible peace deal between Iran and the United States, he rejected direct talks between Israel and Lebanon.

Qassem condemned the Lebanese government engaging in direct negotiations with Israel claiming it will only benefit the “Israeli-American project”.

“Disarment is annihilation and we cannot accept it,” he said. “The people have the right to take to the streets and bring down the government in confronting the American-Israeli project,” he continued.

The speech drew US secretary of state Marco Rubio’s attention.

“The United States condemns in the strongest terms Hezbollah’s reckless call to overthrow Lebanon’s democratically elected government,” Rubio said in a statement on 24 May.

On 6 June, Australia, alongside the EU and other countries, released a joint statement expressing “profound concern” over the escalation, encouraging both parties to end hostilities as “the people of Lebanon have already endured immense hardship”.

“We further encourage continued engagement with ongoing diplomatic efforts, including those led by the United States and international partners, aimed at securing a negotiated path toward long-term stability and security for both Lebanon and Israel.” The statement continued.

A Futile Endeavour

Zeina Khodr, a reporter for Al Jazeera noted that the 16 April ceasefire was “just ink on paper”, as the country remained “an active warzone”.

“What we have seen over the past three or four days is some of the heaviest Israeli bombardment yet across southern Lebanon since this latest confrontation began in early March,” she added.

In an interview with the ABC, Lebanon's deputy prime minister Tarek Mitri insisted the Lebanese government was not made aware of a key concession in the agreement until after it was announced by US president Donald Trump on 16 April.

“It's only later that we found out there was this text issued by the State Department which speaks about the inherent right of Israel to defend itself,” he said.

The document on the State Department's website stated, “Israel shall preserve its right to take all necessary measures in self-defense, at any time, against planned, imminent, or ongoing attacks.”

"This shall not be impeded by the cessation of hostilities.”

“Besides this, it will not carry out any offensive military operations against Lebanese targets, including civilian, military, and other state targets, in the territory of Lebanon by land, air, and sea.”

Mitri attributed the weakness of the ceasefire to the United States which he believes gave Israel free rein to launch bombing campaigns "whenever they deem necessary".

He also insisted that Lebanon be part of the ceasefire negotiations. “We're not asking Iran to negotiate on our behalf,” Mitri said.

By 26 April, the previous ceasefire was broken as Israel demanded residents to evacuate from seven villages north of Lebanon's Litani River ahead of strikes.

Following the attacks on 28 May, Israel and Lebanon agreed to renew the ceasefire in a joint statement with the United States on 3 June.

The statement read that the ceasefire was contingent on “a complete cessation of Hezbollah fire and the evacuation of all Hezbollah operatives from the South Litani Sector.”

However, after an Israeli strike which killed four people, Hezbollah rejected the new ceasefire agreement whilst Israel refused to withdraw troops from Lebanon two days after the statement was released.

According to the Lieber Institute, ceasefires hold an ambiguous place in international law as a breach would not be considered a violation unless the ceasefire was part of a binding treaty or United Nations Security Council resolution. Rather, ceasefires serve to “freeze a conflict in place” through the suspension of hostilities.

Since hostilities reignited in March, more than 3,500 people have been killed and 10,000 injured by Israeli attacks in Lebanon as ceasefires are disintegrating as soon as they are agreed upon.

Image source: Reuters – Mohamed Azakir.