I grew up in Albury, and throughout my childhood it was one of the most politically dull places in Australia. The Liberal Party (LP) held our state and federal seats with a fair margin, and the Australian Labor Party (ALP) never mounted a convincing challenge. However, this year, Albury has finally come to the forefront of the Australian political stage as Sussan Ley steps away from federal politics, leaving her seat of Farrer exposed to the surge of One Nation and independent candidates.

Who will win Farrer in the upcoming by-election? Based on the history of our seat, a Coalition candidate remains likely; we are certainly regional, with Albury as the largest city in our electorate. Farrer has only ever been held by the Coalition, but over the last four elections, voting in the seat has been swinging away from the Liberal Party. Bit by bit, people in Albury and Griffith have become dissatisfied by Sussan Ley’s lack of community connection. Now, as the Nationals and Liberals are running separate campaigns in our seat, neither party appears in the top two of Farrer polling data.

I lived in Albury for 15 years and have been actively involved in the community; I only saw Sussan Ley twice. Once in Canberra, and once in the airport on the way out of Albury. For me, she did not feel like an engaged, local candidate, and the idea that her seat was untouchable was infuriating. Over time, her margin deteriorated. She went from holding 70 per cent of the vote to only 56 per cent, and now it seems that the LNP is in danger of losing the “‘fairly safe”’ seat of Farrer.

But who could they lose the seat to? The Labor Party has opted not to run a candidate in 2026. Over the last four elections in Farrer, the Labor Party has failed to post a significant challenge to the Liberal presence in the seat. Since 2013, not one of the Labor candidates has received above 20,000 first preference votes, while Sussan Ley has received 40,000 or more for each of those years. Last year, candidate Glen Hyde was a Labor Party fly-in from Canberra, and the ALP’s failure to put forward a local candidate was punished by Hyde falling to third place in the polling behind independent Michelle Milthorpe. Similarly in 2019, the Labor candidate fell to third position against an independent, and in 2016 the Labor candidate was disendorsed by Labor leadership over links to Islamic extremism. 

It is hard to imagine what a successful Labor campaign in Farrer would look like. The ALP has never run one in the past. As a young voter in Albury, it has always felt that Labor had given up on us; after all, it was a safe Liberal seat with a significant margin. Perhaps, with the genuine possibility of a non-Liberal Farrer on the cards for the first time in decades, the ALP will finally turn their minds to winning this regional seat. 

The national surge in One Nation popularity could present a real possibility in a generally conservative regional seat. In the past, One Nation contenders have never passed 10,000 votes in Farrer, and left-wing preferences could protect an LNP candidate from a One Nation challenger. However, recent polling shows that One Nation is leading in primary vote, and so their viability could come down to the direction of coalition preferences. Two months out from the by-election, for many analysts, One Nation is the favourite to win the seat.

Research from the Australia Institute found that an independent candidate was far more likely to topple the holder of a “‘safe”’ or “‘fairly safe”’ seat than a challenging major party candidate. In 2025, Michelle Milthorpe ran a community-based campaign that emulated Dr Helen Haines’ campaign in neighbouring  Indi. She ran a “‘Farrer first”’ campaign and received more votes than any candidate other than Ley since 2001. Her campaign received funding from Climate 200, but she was quick to deny the label of a “‘teal”’ independent. Milthorpe is running again in 2026, with the support of local politicians including councillor Jess Kellahan and former councillor David Thurley.

A major issue in Albury is local debate about the need for a new, greenfield hospital to meet the healthcare needs of the border community. In Albury-Wodonga, healthcare is divided across multiple facilities; the only maternity ward, for example, is located across the border in Victoria. Local figures, including Mayor Kevin Mack, NSW upper house representative for the Greens Dr Amanda Cohn, and Michelle Milthorpe have supported a greenfield site. However, neither major party has supported the movement, instead supporting the renovation of current sites which advocates say will not meet the demand of the community. Dr Cohn has said that this by-election will “shine the national spotlight” on the hospital debate. 

Our democratic system relies on political parties presenting viable candidates at elections; without genuine competition between parties, voters cannot access candidates who reflect their values. With Farrer going to a by-election without a Labor candidate, Farrer is left to what analyst Antony Green has labelled “‘a conservative slugfest”’. While Milthorpe has received funding from Climate200, she has provided limited policy positions beyond her stance on water rights and Albury-Wodonga Health. Milthorpe, as an alternative to mainstream conservative parties, may attract left-wing votes as she did last year, however it would be remiss to label her as a progressive candidate. The Greens are once again running community mental health advocate Richard Hendrie, who attracted less than 5 per cent of the vote in 2025. As a politically engaged young person from Albury, this by-election seems like a missed opportunity for Australia’s governing party to show that it cares about the Australian people, even in seats which they probably won’t win. More than that, Labor provides a reliable, realistic option for centre-left voters, and their absence narrows the range of ideological choices. Parties must allocate resources wisely but abandoning entire electorates risks reinforcing the perception that regional Australians are electorally expendable. 

What is happening in Albury is not unique; it reflects a broader strategy across Australian electoral politics. The Liberal and Labor parties increasingly concentrate their resources in marginal metropolitan seats, while large regional electorates are written off as either permanently conservative or unwinnable. Liberal deputy Jane Hume remarked that she could not represent the regions because she is too fond of “‘good coffee”’. Anthony Albanese had not been to Albury as Prime Minister until the announcement of a by-election; other senior politicians including David Pocock, Matt Canavan and Pauline Hanson made the trip in the last few weeks. Albury has been previously ignored because of its comparative electoral safety, and is only receiving any level of interest now because of its altered political standing as a potentially winnable seat.

Has the ALP quietly accepted that regional Australia is not worth pursuing? When communities only see one side of politics campaigning locally, disengagement is almost inevitable. If Labor hopes to remain a truly national party rather than a coalition of urban strongholds, it cannot afford to treat places like Farrer as electorally irrelevant. 

Moreover, recent Labor policies have threatened to alienate young people across Australia. The social media ban seems like an obvious example of a polarising policy which limits the rights of young Australians. The slashing of HECS may have been popular with young people who have incurred large educational loans, but for young people who were a year or more away from taking on these debts, the policy seemed to avoid reform, instead scoring cheap political points with a basic policy without a benefit to those who will take on HECS in coming years.

Right now, we are left to consider the genuine possibility that One Nation could win Farrer. That would leave our electorate as a site for hateful culture-war style politics, rather than a place with a passionate local advocate. National controversies may overshadow local priorities like the Greenfield hospital. The prospect of another Coalition member is not necessarily reassuring either. An uninspired Liberal or National successor to Ley could perpetuate the sense of disconnection which became so unpopular during her tenure.

This election will be the first test of the Liberal Party after their historic defeat last year, but for young voters in Albury, this by-election is about more than party loyalty. It is about whether Farrer is finally treated as winnable – and therefore worth listening to.