Yesterday morning, the 2026 Cannes Film Festival came to a maximalist conclusion, handing out nine prizes across five of its most significant categories at its annual awards ceremony. Receiving a prize at Cannes not only foretells continued success for the creatives involved in the production of a film, but also provides insight into what might prevail at the Academy Awards. This year, Cannes has provided a broad and highly acclaimed range of films from a diverse set of emerging and established filmmakers, making the work of future awards voters decidedly more difficult. 

PALME D’OR: FJORD (dir. Cristian Mungiu)

Following Fjord’s premiere near the middle of the festival, discourse surrounding the film began to wane in the wake of the premieres of other films on this list. Going into the awards ceremony, few were anticipating a Palme victory for Cristian Mungiu’s Romanian crime/family drama, but Fjord still managed to prevail. The film has been compared to 2023 Palme victor Anatomy of a Fall, and its victory continues the strong relationship between Cannes and European drama, making it feel like a relatively safe choice for the win. 

The film’s success at Cannes immediately puts it in contention for major nominations and wins at the Academy Awards. Over the last five years, three out of five Palme-winning directors went on to receive directing nominations at the Oscars, and two of the last five Palme-winning films went on to receive major awards at the ceremony (Best Original Screenplay for Anatomy of a Fall and a slew of wins for Anora). A directing nomination for Mungiu seems all but confirmed, as well as nominations in Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay. In terms of acting, the film features acclaimed lead performances from Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve, two previous nominees who will almost certainly land their next nominations for their work in Fjord. This would mark Reinsve’s second consecutive nomination for Best Actress following recognition for her Jury Prize-winning performance in Sentimental Value, and Sebastian Stan’s second nomination following 2024’s The Apprentice. This film is an especially significant one for Stan, who is of Romanian descent, making this collaboration with a director from his home country an especially meaningful one.

Neon purchased the distribution rights for Fjord before its first screening at Cannes, extending their Palme-winning streak to seven consecutive years. The distributor’s ongoing and unparalleled knack for curatorship will certainly be held in high stead for years to come.

GRAND PRIX: MINOTAUR (dir. Andrey Zvyagintsev)

This year’s Grand Prix award—essentially a second-place prize for the film next in line for the Palme—went to the sixth feature film from Russian director Andrey Zvyagintsev. Minotaur features similar thematic concerts to his other works, following a businessman who discovers his wife’s infelicity against the backdrop of the Russo-Ukrainian war. Minotaur is perhaps Zvyagintsev’s most acclaimed film yet, with this Grand Prix the most prestigious award given to the director. 

His last two features, Leviathan and Loveless, were both nominated for Oscars in the Best International Feature category, and it seems likely that Minotaur will follow the same path. 

The film’s understated dramatic nature and the similarity of this film to Zvyagintsev’s other works appears to suggest that Minotaur won’t go on to receive an increased level of recognition, however. This Cannes lineup is filled with higher octane, more accessible films from directors whose work feels more immediate, and it seems likely that Minotaur may not go on to see the same success of its peers. 

BEST DIRECTOR: Javier Calvo, Javier Ambrossi (THE BLACK BALL) & Paweł Pawlikowski (FATHERLAND)

Cannes awards ceremonies often feature ties, but these are usually in recognition of multiple acting performances in the same film—rarely for the directors of separate films. This year, however, two Best Director prizes were awarded, to Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi of The Black Ball and Fatherland’s Paweł Pawlikowski. The dual win in this category indicates the scale of quality releases at this year’s festival and could perhaps point towards a similar proliferation of success at the Academy Awards.

The Black Ball, a triptych, sprawling examination of the lives of three interconnected gay men in Spain across multiple decades, had perhaps the most buzz of any film going into the awards ceremony. The film features a large ensemble cast, including the likes of Penélope Cruz and Glenn Close, and also included a number of musical numbers. Netflix purchased The Black Ball in a landmark deal estimated to be in the $5 million range—the highest amount the streamer has ever paid for a non-English acquisition—promising that The Black Ball is set to become one of their biggest awards season prospects. The film’s period setting and musical aspects is a goldmine for Oscar nominations, as both technical aspects increase a film’s competitiveness in categories across the board (see Sinners, La La Land). 

What will eventuate for Pawlikowski’s Fatherland is less obvious—the director’s previous film, Cold War, also won in this category at Cannes and went on to get him recognised at the Oscars. Fatherland, a thematic and filmic extension of the work explored in Cold War, may not go on to provide Pawlikowski with the same degree of success due to the added competition from The Black Ball’s directing duo and the film’s simple lack of immediacy. Despite this, Fatherland may still go on to prove successful, especially considering the stellar lead performance from Sandra Hüller. 

BEST ACTRESS: Virginie Efira & Tao Okamoto (ALL OF A SUDDEN)

The dual protagonists of Oscar-nominated Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Virginie Efira and Tao Okamoto, have a difficult road ahead of them in the gambit for continued awards success. Their film is a difficult sell for the average voter, a three-and-a-half-hour meditative—and subtitled—contemplation on the nature of friendship and human connection. International performances continue to face unfair challenges when vying for Oscar recognition, especially those appearing from Asian filmmakers. Parasite was famously neglected in all acting categories in its Best Picture-winning sweep, and previous performers in contention, such as Lee Byung-Hung in jury president Park Chan-Wook’s No Other Choice, also fell by the wayside. Efira and Okamoto have evidently achieved something of great magnitude with their work here, and their possible Academy recognition could mark a new frontier for the acknowledgement of Asian filmmaking on an international scale. 

BEST ACTOR: Emmanuel Macchia & Valentin Campagne (COWARD)

Lukas Dhont’s Coward, another film examining the destruction of queerness in hostile historical settings, was also poised for Palme contention going into the Cannes award ceremony. This Best Actor prize, while compensatory, still indicates a relatively high degree of good will towards the film. In a similar fashion to All of a Sudden, however, it seems unlikely these men will go on to receive Oscar recognition. Coward will likely continue to pop up in international film categories throughout the year, but continued individual recognition for its ensemble seems unlikely.