Public anger over the cost of living, slumping poll results for the government, and a close by-election in a traditionally uncompetitive seat. After the Dunkley by-election, this is a trend that Melburnians from the outer suburbs have grown rapidly accustomed to.

This time, all eyes will be on Melbourne’s west, where the Victorian Labor government is  facing an uphill battle to defend its outer-suburban heartland.

February 8 will see voters in Melbourne’s rapidly growing west elect a new member for Werribee, following the retirement of former Treasurer Tim Pallas, who held the seat since 2006.

While Werribee is a traditionally safe seat for Labor, voters have grown increasingly disillusioned with both the state and federal governments, turning on the Premier and putting the unlikely seat of Werribee into play for the Liberals.

An early voting place in Wyndham Vale.

The by-election will be the first test for newly elected Liberal leader Brad Battin, who ousted predecessor John Pesutto in December. A Liberal victory in Werribee would be a disastrous result for Labor, and would leave Labor Premier Jacinta Allan in a tenuous position ahead of the next state election in 2026.

The Werribee by-election will be held alongside another in Prahran, where the Greens are also facing a close race to maintain the seat. However, media attention has been almost exclusively focused on Werribee, due to the stakes it poses for the government.

Candidates

Labor’s candidate for Werribee is John Lister, 31, a local school teacher, Country Fire Authority volunteer, and a renter, who has been carefully marketed by the party as a “true Werribee local.”

Incidentally, Lister was the Education (Public Affairs) Officer at the University of Melbourne Student Union in 2013, where he spoke against cuts by the Gillard government to tertiary education funding.

Lister is a member of Labor’s Left faction, which has a progressive democratic-socialist platform. The University of Melbourne ALP Club, representing students associated with Lister’s faction, has endorsed Lister.

In a published statement, a spokesperson for the club told Farrago:

“Having grown up in and currently working as an educator in the community he seeks to represent, Mr. Lister proudly embodies true left-wing progressive principles… The ALP Club looks forward to seeing John Lister work and fight for the people of Werribee as a proud local member.” 

Lister’s main opponent will be Liberal Party candidate Steve Murphy, a real estate agent, who previously worked as a city planner, an army trooper and a policeman. Murphy currently lives in Essendon West, but previously resided in the area for over 30 years.

Murphy is an office holder in the Knights of the Southern Cross, an order of Catholic laymen who have previously advocated against abortion and same-sex marriage, according to The Age. He has not elaborated upon his own personal views, but has said that the order purely is a volunteer charity.

Mr. Murphy’s wife, Gayle Murphy, previously ran as a Liberal candidate for the same seat in 2014 and 2018, as well as in the 2019 and 2016 federal elections for the seat of Lalor, which covers large parts of the Werribee electorate, and in 2020 for Wyndham City Council. Mr. Murphy acted as his wife’s campaign manager.

The Melbourne University Liberal Club (MULC), who have campaigned in Werribee, have endorsed Murphy, telling Farrago:

“If you don’t like the status quo, vote to change it, vote Murphy.”

MULC members volunteering in Werribee. | Source: Supplied.

Other parties contesting the by-election include the Greens, the Victorian Socialists, Legalise Cannabis, the Animal Justice Party, and Family First. Paul Hopper, an independent who ran in 2022, has also been gaining significant traction in the electorate.

Electorate Profile

Werribee sits on a comfortable 10.9 per cent margin, and has been held by the Liberal Party only once since its creation in 1976.

The seat includes the suburbs of Mambourin, Manor Lakes, Werribee, and Wyndham Vale. The seat also covers Cocoroc, Hoppers Crossing, Little River, and Quandong. Werribee and other surrounding electorates make up the local government area of Wyndham.

The suburb of Werribee is the commercial centre of the electorate, and the administrative centre of Wyndham. While a marginally Labor area, the Liberal Party tends to perform best here, in comparison to the outlying suburbs.

Manor Lakes, gazetted in 2016, is a new suburb in Werribee.

Like many of Melbourne’s outer metropolitan areas, housing is more affordable in Werribee, making it a rapidly growing destination for middle to low- income families.

The electorate has a higher than average population of residents from South Asian backgrounds, with more than 11,000 residents born in India in the electorate.

The Liberal Party’s rejection of Indian-Australian entrepreneur Rajan Chopra, who was the first candidate in the preselection, could hurt the party among this key constituency. Some members of the community are disappointed by the party’s choice to preselect a candidate like Murphy, who does not reflect the electorate’s growing young migrant population.

Nonetheless, Murphy will benefit from rising dissatisfaction with the Labor Party over its handling of the cost-of-living crisis, which has given the Liberal Party momentum in Melbourne’s outer metropolitan areas.

The cost of living has hurt Labor in its outer-suburban seats.

A recent Resolve Strategic Victoria poll showed Labor at a historically-low primary vote of 22 per cent, a 15 per cent swing against the Labor Party since the 2022 state election.

The poll is one of the worst ever for Labor, and if replicated at the next state election, would likely result in a landslide defeat to the Liberals. The Opposition Leader leader however has conceded that winning Werribee will still be difficult for the party.

Crime

Crime has become an important issue to voters in the outer suburbs, with local law enforcement struggling to curb increasing crime rates.

Werribee tells a similar story. In the Wyndham local government area, crime rates have increased by 13 per cent between 2023 and 2024, according to the Victorian Crime Statistics Agency.

In 2024, motor vehicle thefts were the most common crime, and 57 per cent of all criminal incidents were unsolved, one of the highest rates in the state.

The Victorian Liberals blame the spike in crime on the policies of the Allan Labor government. Brad Battin, a former police officer, has cultivated a ‘tough on crime’ image and made crime his “number one priority.”

He has also called for greater investment in crime prevention, and the introduction of ‘youth justice’ in the Liberal Party’s youth crime policy. Battin has previously broken with his party to support raising the age of criminal responsibility from 10 to 14.

Crime is an election-winning issue in Werribee.

In an effort to win over voters in the outer suburbs, the Premier seems to be attempting to outflank the Liberal Party on crime policy.

In August last year, before Battin’s election as Liberal leader, the Premier indefinitely delayed plans to raise the  age of criminal responsibility from 10 to 14, a decision denounced by activist groups, as well as some in her own party. 

On Tuesday, the Premier announced a review of Victoria’s new bail laws, just two months after their implementation.

The laws passed in March 2024 make it more difficult for repeat criminal offenders to be released into the community and introduce a new offense for committing a serious crime while on bail.

However, public unrest over crime has only increased, and the Premier says that the government needs to “go further,” demonstrating the significance of the issue ahead of the next state election. 

Infrastructure

Allan’s tenure as premier has seen the continuation of former Premier Daniel Andrews’ polarising infrastructure investments, which have contributed to soaring debt. Projects like the Metro Tunnel and the Suburban Rail Loop have become signature projects associated with the Allan Labor government.

The western suburbs, however, have not received nearly as many infrastructure investments, which has made the issue central to the Werribee by-election. The Liberal Party has taken advantage of this vacuum, accusing Labor of neglecting its western heartland.

Infrastructure has been a top priority for the Allan Labor government.

In a statement to Farrago, MULC attacked the Allan Labor government, accusing it of favouritism towards the east.

“While the eastern suburbs receive billions for the suburban rail loop and other projects, the west continues to be refused basic services. Trains are overcrowded, roads are at a standstill, hospitals non-existent,” the club said.

“As long as Werribee or any seat like it remains a safe Labor seat, it will continue to be ignored and neglected.”

In a bid to win back voters, the Allan Labor government has announced a flurry of new infrastructure projects in the region, like a $333.5 million cash splash on road upgrades in Werribee and Wyndham Vale, and the construction of the Ison Road Overpass, which would greatly reduce traffic congestion.

However, it is unclear whether Werribee voters will be appeased by these investments. While the government has committed itself to new projects in the area and increased attention on the west, frustration lingers among lower to middle-income voters in the electorate.

Ultimately, it will be up to voters to decide whether Labor has neglected its western heartland and if the government should be punished for it.